Variable change - monty hall problem
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Variable change - monty hall problem
Variable Change - Big words for conditional Probability Calc
problem is explained in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rl_p3JlSd0
When you pick 1 door, the Probabilities are :
P(car)=1/3
P(Goat 1)=1/3
P(Goat 2)=1/3
Now, Monty opens a door with a goat,
Switching your choice means "What is the probability that the other door is the car ?"
OR : you originally took the car AND switch
P(successful switch under this knowledge)=0,
P(successful switch/you took the car) = 1/3 x 0
OR : you originally took Goat 1 AND switch
P(successful switch under this knowledge)=1
P(successful switch/you took Goat 1)=1/3x1
OR : you originally took Goat 2 and switch
P(successful switch under this knowledge)=1
P(succcessful switch/you took Goat 1)=1
OR = +
so P(successful switch/you took random door) = 1/3x0 + 1/3x1 + 1/3x1
= 2/3
problem is explained in http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rl_p3JlSd0
When you pick 1 door, the Probabilities are :
P(car)=1/3
P(Goat 1)=1/3
P(Goat 2)=1/3
Now, Monty opens a door with a goat,
Switching your choice means "What is the probability that the other door is the car ?"
OR : you originally took the car AND switch
P(successful switch under this knowledge)=0,
P(successful switch/you took the car) = 1/3 x 0
OR : you originally took Goat 1 AND switch
P(successful switch under this knowledge)=1
P(successful switch/you took Goat 1)=1/3x1
OR : you originally took Goat 2 and switch
P(successful switch under this knowledge)=1
P(succcessful switch/you took Goat 1)=1
OR = +
so P(successful switch/you took random door) = 1/3x0 + 1/3x1 + 1/3x1
= 2/3
- Berichten: 17.659
Re: Variable change - monty hall problem
Sorry, we zijn een Nederlandstalig forum.
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